Why it matters: AI/HPC and Bitcoin mining are straining power systems, permitting, and policy—often faster than grids and regulators can adapt.
Infrastructure Reality Check In most regions, it is recommended to first test internet connectivity and energy infrastructure with Tier 0 usage(e.g., Bitcoin mining) before committing to higher-tier builds. AI and HPC clients typically require a minimum of two years of proven, stable, and redundant energy infrastructure before approving Tier 3 deployments.
Ethiopia
In our view, Ethiopia has the potential to become one of Africa’s leading data center hubs, with climate and humidity conditions that are highly favorable for such operations.
However, we are again witnessing certain Bitcoin mining operators acting as poor stewards—failing to create jobs, contribute to economic activity, pay taxes, or invest in energy infrastructure and distribution, and in some cases, even engaging in power theft.
- Grid strain & reliability: Rolling outages and grid constraints make continuous-load operations risky; authorities are prioritizing public supply.
- Policy whiplash for mining (Tier 0): Freeze/phase-out of new crypto-mining power permits increases regulatory risk.
- Capacity vs. demand for AI/HPC (Tier 3): IFC-backed builds are coming, but power reliability and permitting remain bottlenecks.
- Net takeaway: Low-cost hydropower is outweighed by near-term policy and reliability risks.
Indonesia
We have been working closely with the Indonesia Digital Council to establish a regulated framework for Tier 0 data center infrastructure. With the new administration now in place, we anticipate making significant progress this year in this remarkable market and country.
- Regulatory backdrop: PDP Law now in force—positive for trust, but increases compliance overhead.
- Power access & mix: PLN is expanding capacity but still leans on coal/gas; rooftop-solar limits hinder green branding.
- Crypto mining (Tier 0): Legal trading, but mining remains in a regulatory gray zone.
- AI/HPC (Tier 3): Hyperscale demand is growing, but power procurement and renewable sourcing can delay projects.
- Net takeaway: High growth potential, but success depends on early compliance and credible power sourcing.
Learn more about the Indonesian Digital Council
North America
North America has already experienced this shift, with well-known energy markets such as Duke Energy and PJM raising prices for those without grandfathered agreements. We expect further increases, which could render Tier 0 operations non-viable in the near future.
It almost appears to be a deliberate squeeze to free up power for the growing demand from AI/HPC workloads. We strongly recommend Tier 0 operators to hedge their position by pivoting toward Tier 3/4 data center infrastructure.
- Power is the new land: Interconnection queues and grid constraints are the main blockers; developers now secure MW before land.
- AI load management: Utilities test demand-response to ease grid stress.
- Bitcoin mining (Tier 0): State-level policies vary—some restrictive (e.g., NY PoW limits).
- Costs & volatility: Rising costs and local opposition add complexity; Texas growth hinges on ERCOT capacity.
- Net takeaway: Capital and supply chain depth unmatched, but power access and ESG compliance are decisive.
Bottom line:
- Tier 0: Stability in power policy is key—Ethiopia and Indonesia currently carry higher risk than most North American states.
- Tier 3: The chokepoints are firm MW access, build timelines, and carbon intensity.
At GRN Energy, we help clients secure the right locations, power agreements, and compliance pathways for both mining and AI/HPC projects in these complex markets. If you are planning a project in Ethiopia, Indonesia, or North America, connect with us to navigate regulatory, grid, and market realities with confidence.
Let us help you navigate this ever-changing market. Contact us Today!
